அமெரிக்காவில் பணவீக்க விகிதம் வேகமாக அதிகரித்து வருவதால் அங்கு பொருளாதார மந்தநிலை மீண்டும் ஏற்படுவதற்கான சூழல் உருவாகி வருவதாக பிரபல பொருளாதார நிபுணர்கள் கவலை தெரிவித்துள்ளனர்.

கோவிட்-19 பெருந்தொற்றிலிருந்து உலகப் பொருளாதாரம் மெல்ல மீண்டும் வரும் நிலையில் தற்போது பல்வேறு நாடுகளும் புதிய சிக்கல் ஒன்றை சந்தித்து வருகிறது. பொருளாதார சுழற்சியால் பொருட்களின் தேவை அதிகரிப்பு, கச்சா எண்ணெய் விலை உயர்வு போன்ற காரணங்களால் உணவுப்பொருட்கள் தொடங்கி பல பொருட்களின் விலை கடுமையாக உயர்ந்து வருகிறது.

சமையல் எண்ணெய், தொடங்கி கோதுமை, சர்க்கரை என பல உணவுப்பொருட்களின் விலை அதிகரித்து வருகிறது. இதனால் பல நாடுகளில் பொருளாதார சிக்கல் உருவாகி வருகிறது. இதனால் பல நாடுகளில் பணவீக்கம் ஏற்பட்டு பொருட்களை வாங்க முடியாத நிலைக்கு மக்கள் தள்ளப்பட்டுள்ளனர்.

இதனைத் தொடர்ந்து உக்ரைன் மீது ரஷ்யா நடத்தி வரும் போர் உலகளாவிய பொருளாதார சிக்கலை அதிகரித்துள்ளது. இதுபோலவே சீனா உள்ளிட்ட நாடுகளில் மீண்டும் கரோனா தொற்று காரணமாக ஊரடங்கு அமலில் உள்ளதால் உலகம் முழுவதுமே பொருளாதார அச்சுறுத்தல்கள் மேலும் தீவிரமாகியுள்ளது.

கரோனா பெருந்தொற்றுக்குப் பிறகு இலங்கை பெரிய அளவில் பொருளாதார பாதிப்பை சந்தித்து வருகிறது. இதனால் அரசுக்கு எதிராக மக்கள் போராட்டங்கள் தீவிரமடைந்துள்ளன. இலங்கையை போன்றே வேறு சில நாடுகளிலும் இதேபோன்ற பொருளாதார பாதிப்பு, கடன் சுமை ஏற்பட்டுள்ளது.

பொருளாதார மந்தநிலை என்பது ஜிடிபி எனப்படும் மொத்த உள்நாட்டு உற்பத்தி வளர்ச்சி சரிவை சந்திக்கும்போது ஏற்படும் தேக்கமாகும். மொத்த உள்நாட்டு உற்பத்தி வளர்ச்சி என்பது ஒரு நாட்டின் உற்பத்தியை ஒரு குறிப்பிட்ட காலப் பகுதியில் அளவிடக் கூடிய ஒரு அளவுகோல் ஆகும். உதாரணமாக மொத்த உள்நாட்டு உற்பத்தி வளர்ச்சி 9 சதவீதத்திலிருந்து 6 சதவீதமாகக் குறைந்தால் அது பொருளாதார சரிவு என கருதப்படும். இந்த அடிப்படையில் பார்த்தால் பல நாடுகளில் பொருளாதார வளர்ச்சி விகிதம் என்பது சரிவாகவே உள்ளது. எனவே மந்தநிலை தொடங்கி விட்டதா என்ற அச்சம் எழுந்துள்ளது.

இது ஏழை நாடுகள், வளர்ந்து வரும் நாடுகளில் மட்டுமல்லாமல் அமெரிக்கா போன்ற வளர்ந்த நாடுகளிலும் இதே நிலை தான் உள்ளது. அமெரிக்காவிலுள்ள 80% க்கும் அதிகமானோர் இந்த ஆண்டு அமெரிக்காவில் மீண்டும் பொருளாதார மந்தநிலை ஏற்படலாம் என்று மொமென்டிவ் ஆய்வு நிறுவனம் நடத்திய கருத்து கணிப்பில் தெரிவித்துள்ளனர்.

அமெரிக்காவில் மந்தநிலை பற்றிய மக்களின் அச்சம் பொருட்களின் விலை உயர்வு காரணமாக எழுந்துள்ளது. பணவீக்கம் அதிகரித்துக் கொண்டே போனால், மக்கள் டாலர்களை செலவழிப்பதை நிறுத்திவிடுவார்கள் என்றும், மந்தநிலை ஆபத்து உருவாகும் என்று மக்கள் நினைக்கின்றனர்.

அமெரிக்கப் பொருளாதாரம் மந்தநிலையை நோக்கிச் செல்லக்கூடும், பணவீக்கம் எதிர்பார்த்ததை விட 40-ஆண்டுகளின் உச்சத்தை எட்டிய பிறகு, இந்த மாத இறுதியில் பெடரல் ரிசர்வ் 100 அடிப்படை புள்ளிகள் விகிதத்தை உயர்த்துவதற்கான வாய்ப்புகள் ஏற்பட்டுள்ளன.

மின்சாரம், உணவு மற்றும் வீட்டுவசதி ஆகியவற்றின் விலை உயர்வு, யூ.எஸ். நுகர்வோர் விலைக் குறியீட்டை ஒரு வருடத்திற்கு முன்பு ஜூன் மாதத்தில் இருந்து 9.1 சதவிகிதமாக உயர்த்தியுள்ளது, இது வெறும் 8 சதவிகிதம் என்று முன்பு கணிக்கப்பட்டது.

அதிகரித்து வரும் பணவீக்கத்தால் ஏற்கெனவே கணிக்கப்பட்ட 75 அடிப்படைப் புள்ளிகளைக் காட்டிலும் அமெரிக்க பெடரல் வங்கி 100 அடிப்படை புள்ளிகளால் வட்டி விகிதங்களை உயர்த்தக்கூடும் என்ற கவலையை ஏற்பட்டுள்ளது.

ஆஸ்திரேலியாவின் காமன்வெல்த் வங்கி ஆய்வாளர் கிறிஸ்டினா கிளிப்டன் இதுகுறித்து கூறுகையில் ‘‘அமெரிக்காவின் பணவீக்க வேகம் அதிகரித்து வருகிறது. மந்தநிலையைத் தூண்டுகிறது. மந்தநிலை அச்சங்கள் டாலர் மதிப்பை உயர்த்தும் என்று நாங்கள் எதிர்பார்க்கிறோம். ஸ்வாப் சந்தைகள் வர்த்தகர்கள் தற்போது விலை நிர்ணயம் செய்வதை வைத்து நம்மால் உறுதி செய்ய முடியும். ஜூலை மாதத்தில் பெடரல் 100-அடிப்படை புள்ளிகள் உயர்த்தும்’’ என்று குறிப்பிட்டுள்ளார்.

ஏஎம்பியின் தலைமைப் பொருளாதார நிபுணர் ஷேன் ஆலிவர் கூறுகையில் ‘‘அமெரிக்காவில் பணவீக்கம் உயர்ந்து வரும் சூழலை கவனித்தால் வேகமாக பொருளாதார மந்தநிலையை நோக்கி செல்கிறது. ஏறக்குறைய 90 சதவிகிதம் அதிகமான வட்டி அதிகரிப்பை காண முடிகிறது.

பெடரல் வங்கி 75 அடிப்படை புள்ளிகள் வரை செல்ல வாய்ப்புண்டு. இன்னும் அதிக எண்ணிக்கையில் சென்றால் 100 புள்ளிகள் நோக்கி செல்ல வாய்ப்பும் உள்ளது. பணவீக்கத்தை மீண்டும் குறைக்க மத்திய வங்கிக்கு இதுபோன்ற நடவடிக்கை அவசியமாகிறது’’ எனக் கூறினார்.

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